Paper: arXiv 2410.08744
Abstract
Tick-sizes not only influence the granularity of the price formation process but also affect market agents’ behavior. We investigate the disparity in the microstructural properties of the Limit Order Book (LOB) across a basket of assets with different relative tick-sizes. A key contribution of this study is the identification of several stylized facts, which are used to differentiate between large, medium, and small-tick assets, along with clear metrics for their measurement. We provide cross-asset visualizations to illustrate how these attributes vary with relative tick-size. Further, we propose a Hawkes Process model that {"\color{black"}not only fits well for large-tick assets, but also accounts for }sparsity, multi-tick level price moves, and the shape of the LOB in small-tick assets. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the {"\color{black"} versatility} of the model and identify key variables that determine whether a simulated LOB resembles a large-tick or small-tick asset. Our tests show that stylized facts like sparsity, shape, and relative returns distribution can be smoothly transitioned from a large-tick to a small-tick asset using our model. We test this model’s assumptions, showcase its challenges and propose questions for further directions in this area of research.
Complexity vs Empirical Score
- Math Complexity: 8.5/10
- Empirical Rigor: 6.0/10
- Quadrant: Holy Grail — high math complexity, high empirical rigor
Why this score: The paper heavily employs advanced stochastic modeling (Hawkes processes, SPDEs, generator operators) with complex mathematical formulations, while also providing empirical analysis of stylized facts, cross-asset visualizations, and simulation studies to test model versatility.
Research Flowchart
flowchart TD
A["Research Goal<br>Modeling LOB dynamics across<br>different tick-size regimes"] --> B["Data Collection<br>Empirical LOB data from<br>equity markets with varying<br>relative tick-sizes"]
B --> C["Methodology<br>Hawkes Process modeling<br>to capture event clustering"]
C --> D{"Computational Analysis<br>Simulation & Parameter Estimation"}
D --> E["Key Findings<br>Identified stylized facts<br>differentiating tick regimes"]
E --> F["Outcomes<br>General model valid for both<br>large & small tick assets<br>Smooth transition between regimes"]
Cited References (135)
- A nonparametric estimation procedure for the Hawkes process: comparison with maximum likelihood estimation (2018) — link
- A Stochastic Model for Order Book Dynamics (2010)
- Statistical theory of the continuous double auction (2003) — link
- The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets (2005) — link
- Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models (2002) — link
- Limit order books (2013) — link
- The Price Impact of Order Book Events (2013) — link
- Price Dynamics in a Markovian Limit Order Market (2013) — link
and 127 more
- DeepLOB : Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books (2019) — link
- Quant GANs : deep generation of financial time series (2020) — link
- Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from Deep Learning (2018) — link
- A steady-state model of the continuous double auction (2003) — link
- Statistical Modeling of High-Frequency Financial Data (2011) — link
- Simulating and Analyzing Order Book Data: The Queue-Reactive Model (2015)
- Modelling high-frequency limit order book dynamics with support vector machines (2015) — link
- Modeling financial time-series with generative adversarial networks (2019) — link
- A Mathematical Approach to Order Book Modelling (2011) — link
- An agent based model of the E-Mini S&P 500 applied to flash crash analysis (2012) — link
- Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations (2011) — link
- Sig-Wasserstein GANs for Time Series Generation (2022) — link
- Hawkes Processes in Finance (2015) — link
- Ergodicity and scaling limit of a constrained multivariate Hawkes process (2014) — link
- Estimation of slowly decreasing hawkes kernels: application to high-frequency order book dynamics (2016)
- " Market making" behaviour in an order book model and its impact on the bid-ask spread (2010) — link
- Measuring the resiliency of an electronic limit order book (2007) — link
- Long-Time Behavior of a Hawkes Process–Based Limit Order Book (2015) — link
- A buffer Hawkes process for limit order books (2017) — link
- High-dimensional Hawkes processes for limit order books: modelling, empirical analysis and numerical calibration (2018) — link
- From asymptotic properties of general point processes to the ranking of financial agents (2019) — link
- A scaling limit for limit order books driven by Hawkes processes (2019)
- Hawkes processes and their applications to finance: a review (2018) — link
- Deep Hawkes process for high-frequency market making (2021) — link
- Abides: Towards high-fidelity market simulation for ai research (2019) — link
- Generating Realistic Stock Market Order Streams (2020) — link
- High frequency asymptotics for the limit order book (2016)
- State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling (2022)
- A law of large numbers for limit order books (2017)
- Modeling high-frequency order flow imbalance by functional limit theorems for two-sided risk processes (2015)
- A weak law of large numbers for a limit order book model with fully state dependent order dynamics (2017)
- Hydrodynamic limit of order-book dynamics (2018)
- A Markov model of a limit order book: thresholds, recurrence, and trading strategies (2018)
- Ergodicity and diffusivity of Markovian order book models: a general framework (2017)
- Deep learning modeling of limit order book: A comparative perspective (2020) — link
- Estimation of an Order Book Dependent Hawkes Process for Large Datasets — → 2307.09077
- A one-level limit order book model with memory and variable spread (2017)
- Algorithmic trading with Markov chains (2010)
- Limit order books, diffusion approximations and reflected SPDEs: from microscopic to macroscopic models (2020)
- Second order approximations for limit order books (2018)
- Second-Order Approximation of Limit Order Books in a Single-Scale Regime — → 2308.00805
- Order-book modeling and market making strategies (2018)
- Modeling Bid and Ask Price Dynamics with an Extended Hawkes Process and Its Empirical Applications for High-Frequency Stock Market Data (2022)
- Hawkes-based models for high frequency financial data (2022)
- A stochastic partial differential equation model for limit order book dynamics (2021)
- Dynamic equilibrium limit order book model and optimal execution problem (2014) — link
- Equilibrium Model of Limit Order Books: A Mean-Field Game View (2022)
- Order book dynamics with liquidity fluctuations: limit theorems and large deviations (2020) — link
- Dynamic calibration of order flow models with generative adversarial networks (2022)
- Limit Order Book Simulation with Generative Adversarial Networks (2023)
- Intra-Day Price Simulation with Generative Adversarial Modelling of the Order Flow (2021)
- Generative adversarial nets (2014)
- Conditional generative adversarial nets (2014) — link
- Wasserstein generative adversarial networks (2017)
- The price impact of order book events (2014)
- Price discovery and learning during the preopening period in the Paris Bourse (1999)
- Limit order book as a market for liquidity (2005)
- The lob recreation model: Predicting the limit order book from taq history using an ordinary differential equation recurrent neural network (2021)
- The Limit Order Book Recreation Model (LOBRM): An Extended Analysis (2021)
- State Dependent Parallel Neural Hawkes Process for Limit Order Book Event Stream Prediction and Simulation (2022)
- Neural Stochastic Agent-Based Limit Order Book Simulation: A Hybrid Methodology — → 2303.00080
- Fast agent-based simulation framework of limit order books with applications to pro-rata markets and the study of latency effects (2020) — link
- Deep learning for market by order data (2021)
- Generative AI for End-to-End Limit Order Book Modelling: A Token-Level Autoregressive Generative Model of Message Flow Using a Deep State Space Network — → 2309.00638
- Marked Hawkes process modeling of price dynamics and volatility estimation (2017)
- The neural hawkes process: A neurally self-modulating multivariate point process (2017)
- Deep Learning (2016)
- Machine Learning and Data Sciences for Financial Markets: A Guide to Contemporary Practices (2023)
- Probability distribution of returns in the Heston model with stochastic volatility* (2002) — link
- Learning to simulate realistic limit order book markets from data as a World Agent (2022)
- Conditional Generators for Limit Order Book Environments: Explainability, Challenges, and Robustness — → 2306.12806
- Limit Order Books (2016)
- Hawkes Process: Fast Calibration, Application to Trade Clustering, and Diffusive Limit (2014) — link
- Hawkes model specification for limit order books (2022)
- High-frequency simulations of an order book: a two-scale approach (2011)
- Econophysics review: II. Agent-based models (2011)
- Get real: Realism metrics for robust limit order book market simulations (2020)
- The probability of backtest overfitting (2016)
- Pseudomathematics and financial charlatanism: The effects of backtest over fitting on out-of-sample performance (2014)
- A data-driven market simulator for small data environments (2020) — link
- An estimation procedure for the Hawkes process (2017)
- Queue-reactive Hawkes models for the order flow (2019) — link
- The role of volume in order book dynamics: a multivariate Hawkes process analysis (2017)
- Tick: a Python library for statistical learning, with a particular emphasis on time-dependent modelling (2017) — link
- Market impacts and the life cycle of investors orders (2015)
- Order Flow and Price Formation (2023)
- Deciphering How Investors’ Daily Flows are Forming Prices (2023)
- Data-snooping, technical trading rule performance, and the bootstrap (1999)
- A reality check for data snooping (2000)
- Uncovering causality from multivariate Hawkes integrated cumulants (2018)
- Reinforcement Learning in Non - Markovian Environments (2024) — link
- Value Function Based Reinforcement Learning in Changing Markovian Environments
- Simple Agent , Complex Environment : Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Agent States
- Non- Markovian Reinforcement Learning using Fractional Dynamics (2021) — link
- Q- Learning for Stochastic Control under General Information Structures and Non - Markovian Environments (2024) — link
- Labeling Q -learning for non- Markovian environments (1999) — link
- Policy Gradient Algorithms with Monte - Carlo Tree Search for Non - Markov Decision Processes (2022) — link
- Approximate information state based convergence analysis of recurrent Q -learning (2023) — link
- On Q -learning Convergence for Non - Markov Decision Processes (2018) — link
- High dimensional Hawkes processes (2014) — link
- Reinforcement Learning , Bit by Bit (2023) — link
- Trades, quotes and prices: financial markets under the microscope (2018)
- Tick Size and Price Diffusion (2011) — link
- Deep Limit Order Book Forecasting — → 2403.09267
- HLOB–Information Persistence and Structure in Limit Order Books — → 2405.18938
- Limit Order Book Simulations: A Review — → 2402.17359
- Limit Order Book dynamics and order size modelling using Compound Hawkes Process — → 2312.08927
- LOBSTER: Limit Order Book System - The Efficient Reconstructor
- Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Weibull Distribution Based on Complete and on Censored Samples (1965)
- Optimal Tick Size (2023) — link
- Relative Tick Size and the Trading Environment (2018) — link
- When Bigger is Better: The Impact of a Tiny Tick Size on Undercutting Behavior (2023)
- Market Making, the Tick Size, and Payment-for-Order Flow: Theory and Evidence (1995)
- Nasdaq market structure and spread patterns (1997) — link
- Tick Size Pilot Program and price discovery in U.S. stock markets (2022) — link
- Why Discrete Price Fragments U.S. Stock Exchanges and Disperses Their Fee Structures (2018) — link
- Tick size, liquidity for small and large orders, and price informativeness: Evidence from the Tick Size Pilot Program (2020) — link
- From Glosten-Milgrom to the whole limit order book and applications to financial regulation (2019) — link
- A New Approach for the Dynamics of Ultra-High-Frequency Data: The Model with Uncertainty Zones (2010) — link
- Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues (2001) — link
- What is the optimal tick size? a cross-sectional analysis of execution costs on NASDAQ (2017)
- Large Tick Assets: Implicit Spread and Optimal Tick Size (2015) — link
- On Bid and Ask Side-Specific Tick Sizes (2023) — link
- The long memory of the efficient market (2004)
- How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand (2009)
- Order-splitting and long-memory in an order-driven market (2010)
- Why is equity order flow so persistent? (2015)
9 of 135 cited works are in the corpus; resolved via arXiv source bundles, Semantic Scholar and OpenAlex. Corpus-wide: 2518 linked papers.