Paper: arXiv 2409.11408

Abstract

In this paper, we demonstrate that non-generative, small-sized models such as FinBERT and FinDRoBERTa, when fine-tuned, can outperform GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models in zero-shot learning settings in sentiment analysis for financial news. These fine-tuned models show comparable results to GPT-3.5 when it is fine-tuned on the task of determining market sentiment from daily financial news summaries sourced from Bloomberg. To fine-tune and compare these models, we created a novel database, which assigns a market score to each piece of news without human interpretation bias, systematically identifying the mentioned companies and analyzing whether their stocks have gone up, down, or remained neutral. Furthermore, the paper shows that the assumptions of Condorcet’s Jury Theorem do not hold suggesting that fine-tuned small models are not independent of the fine-tuned GPT models, indicating behavioural similarities. Lastly, the resulted fine-tuned models are made publicly available on HuggingFace, providing a resource for further research in financial sentiment analysis and text classification.

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 4.0/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 7.0/10
  • Quadrant: Street Traders — practical and empirical, lighter on theory

Why this score: The paper introduces a novel market-based dataset, fine-tunes multiple models, and makes models publicly available, indicating significant empirical rigor. While it references the Condorcet Jury Theorem for conceptual analysis, the core contribution is methodological and data-driven rather than advancing complex mathematical theory.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
  A["Research Goal: Assess fine-tuned small models vs. GPT in financial sentiment analysis"] --> B["Create Novel Dataset<br>Bloomberg News with<br>objective market scores"]
  B --> C["Methodology: Fine-tuning<br>FinBERT, FinDRoBERTa, GPT-3.5"]
  C --> D["Comparative Analysis<br>Zero-shot vs. Fine-tuned performance"]
  D --> E{"Key Findings & Outcomes"}
  E --> F["Fine-tuned small models outperform<br>zero-shot GPT-3.5/4"]
  E --> G["Small models achieve<br>comparable results to fine-tuned GPT"]
  E --> H["Models publicly available on<br>HuggingFace"]
  E --> I["Condorcet's Jury Theorem assumptions<br>do not hold<br>Models show behavioral similarities"]

Cited References (43)

  1. FinBERT: Financial Sentiment Analysis with Pre-trained Language Models (2019) — link
  2. FinBERT: A Pretrained Language Model for Financial Communications (2020) — link
  3. Big Data: Deep Learning for Financial Sentiment Analysis (2018)
  4. Deep Learning for Financial Sentiment Analysis on Finance News Providers (2016)
  5. BloombergGPT: A Large Language Model for Finance (2023) — link
  6. FinGPT: Open-Source Financial Large Language Models — → 2306.06031
  7. Extending Context Window of Large Language Models via Positional Interpolation (2023) — link
  8. Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models (2023) — link
and 35 more
  1. Prompt-Based Meta-Learning For Few-shot Text Classification (2022) — link
  2. Evaluation of Sentiment Analysis in Finance: From Lexicons to Transformers (2020) — link
  3. The Impact of Sentiment Indices on the Stock Exchange—The Connections between Quantitative Sentiment Indicators, Technical Analysis, and Stock Market (2023) — link
  4. Stock market reaction to news: Do tense and horizon matter? (2023) — link
  5. Good Debt or Bad Debt: Detecting Semantic Orientations in Economic Texts (2013) — link
  6. Can ChatGPT Decipher Fedspeak? (2023) — link
  7. How to Learn and Teach Economics with Large Language Models, Including GPT (2023) — link
  8. Language Models and Cognitive Automation for Economic Research (2023) — link
  9. Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models (2023) — link
  10. Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence (2023) — link
  11. Can ChatGPT Compute Trustworthy Sentiment Scores from Bloomberg Market Wraps? (2024) — link
  12. Revolutionizing Finance with LLMs: An Overview of Applications and Insights (2024) — link
  13. FinQA: A Dataset of Numerical Reasoning over Financial Data (2022) — link
  14. Enhancing Financial Sentiment Analysis via Retrieval Augmented Large Language Models (2023) — link
  15. Multimodal Gen-AI for Fundamental Investment Research (2023) — link
  16. Context-Based Interpretation of Financial Information (2023) — link
  17. Making LLMs Worth Every Penny: Resource-Limited Text Classification in Banking (2023) — link
  18. Sentiment Analysis in the Era of Large Language Models: A Reality Check (2023) — link
  19. Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks (2021) — link
  20. On the probability of the Condorcet Jury Theorem or the Miracle of Aggregation (2022)
  21. Information aggregation, rationality, and the Condorcet jury theorem (1996)
  22. Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix (1785)
  23. DistilBERT, a distilled version of BERT: smaller, faster, cheaper and lighter (2020) — link
  24. Optimal decision rules in uncertain dichotomous choice situations (1982)
  25. Generative AI Text Classification using Ensemble LLM Approaches (2023) — link
  26. Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix (1785)
  27. New Bounds on the Accuracy of Majority Voting for Multi-Class Classification (2023) — link
  28. Breaking Ties of Plurality Voting in Ensembles of Distributed Neural Network Classifiers Using Soft Max Accumulations (2020)
  29. Probability and Measure (1986)
  30. Foundations of Modern Probability (2002)
  31. GPT-NER: Named Entity Recognition via Large Language Models (2023) — link
  32. FinBERT: Financial Sentiment Analysis with Pre-trained Language Models (2021)
  33. DistilROBERTA fine-tuned on Financial News for Sentiment Analysis (2021)
  34. Stress index strategy enhanced with financial news sentiment analysis for the equity markets — → 2404.00012
  35. Good debt or bad debt: Detecting semantic orientations in economic texts (2014)

2 of 43 cited works are in the corpus; resolved via arXiv source bundles, Semantic Scholar and OpenAlex. Corpus-wide: 2518 linked papers.